Saturday 8 November 2014

Disillusionment

After waiting for many years to get an outlet for some of my views, the internet afforded me an opportunity in a forum like this.

Sadly, I've now discovered that instead of being a place where people could compare philosophies and get together with like-minded people for action to better the country, it has become an end in itself. People write and write and look for people to come and read in the hopes, as I now understand, of making money off of it or to gain fame for its sake. This is very sad and I can not bring myself to be seen as one of these people who have no true interest in Nigeria issues beyond exploitative reasons. This is why I do not post updates regularly. My latest update happens to be the proposal I made to a prominent Nigerian which was excused off. I doubt the sincerity of most Nigerians from my experiences and this is no different. This is why I am putting this in the public domain and I will try to get it published by some news organisations

@OIbhagui  
 THE LOW HANGING FRUIT: A CASE FOR VIDEO EVIDENCE ELECTION MONITORING

A number of things can be done that would have immediate effect on the affairs of the nation. For this to also work, we need a mass of people working in concert. 

The whole hallmark of democracy is the voting process. This voting process has been continually plagued by allegations of rigging and various malpractices. This has resulted in cancellations of already won and lost elections. Sitting governors have been removed by court pronouncements as a result of this, even after a number of years in office. There is no reason that one day, given a different set of actors, the same could not be done on the presidential election results. I can not imagine what impact that would bear on the nation fractured along ethnic and religious lines. We need to put an immediate stop to this at all levels by the use of available technology. 

Right now the procedure that I have experienced is that at each polling unit, the INEC officials organize the voting process in the presence of the representatives of the various parties vying for elective positions. After the voting is over, the ballots are counted right there and results are announced by the INEC official-in-charge and the results are endorsed by the various party representatives. The tally is written on an A2 scoresheet and pasted on a wall. There can not be any complaint from that one polling unit under review as to the fairness of the process right there because they were a part of it and could have voiced any concern as they went along. If every voting process in every polling unit follows this procedure and is covered by an anonymous observer wired up with the secret video surveillance camera I propose be used for this process, the videographic evidence cannot be later controverted. The scope of this writeup does not cover the events of violence and disruption at polling stations as this is a whole topic of its own and such cases are far fewer compared to the wholesale repudiation of the results of an election. 

As of 2011 there are 119,973 individual polling units in the country organized under 8809 ward collation centres. If for any reason the cameras can not be deployed across every polling unit in a particular place, it must at least be used in the affected collation centre at ward level. This minimizes to the infinitesimal, the possibility that any infraction might have taken place to affect the whole state’s election result. This would require an equal number of human beings to wear these secret devices. That is a large number of people. In order for that to be possible, it would mean volunteerism would be needed with token refreshment, transport and the acknowledgement that they are part of a good project being their reward. They would preferably be drawn from the local community or other parts of the state at most. They would generally be present for the accreditation exercise and have that process recorded after which they may go home to relax or have a rendezvous with their counterparts from other polling units at a designated place during the intervening period. Their content could be downloaded into a computer during this time and their device battery recharged for good measure.  When it is time for the voting proper, they return and repeat what they had done earlier. They do not have to be present at the polling unit 100% of the time as that would immediately mark them out as persons of interest. It is important for them to be anonymous so that they do not get compromised or assaulted. 


With this process, results of elections can be known by this team on the very night of any election while INEC takes its time to go through the official process. It is something similar that happens in the more matured United States in their election process, albeit without the video camera. Exit polls are conducted asking voters who they just voted for and with this simple basis of reliance of people’s honesty, results are projected same day of voting by private polling groups through the media. The United States does not have a federal election organizing body but rely on these state and private organizations for electoral affairs. It is interesting that everybody in the US sits back and watches the election results from the television networks while in Nigeria, the television networks sit and wait for the results from the government agency. The result of a US presidential election, even though known on election night, with losers conceding and winners celebrating, is actually officially announced in January in the Senate. Even most Americans do not know this as it is irrelevant. 


The video cameras in question are not definite in form at this present time because they would need to be made to suit the purpose. The technology however exists to place a very small device on a person and have video recorded to a decent or even high resolution for a long period of time(hours at a time). When discussion is narrowed down  to what is desired, it can then be made to suit the purpose. Generally the cost of each of these devices would lie in the range of 3 – 8 thousand naira when fully primed to do the work it is required to do. A microSD card is bought separately and is required for the recording to happen at all. They could each cost around 5,000 naira on average depending on the capacity and quality. It is important to have a reliable microSD card so that the recording integrity might not be compromised. A realistic estimate would be no more than 10,000 naira for a ready-to-go unit. For 119,973 units that would amount to 1.2b naira, just for the procurement of gear and some more when logistics of importation is included.

Now this amount does not have to be sourced in its totality. The microSD card for example is a very common storage device which a vast number of people already have in Nigeria; this includes the prospective volunteers. They could simply use theirs and the cost of the project as far as the gear is concerned drops by as much as 50%. But then again an intervention that would have such direct impact on the credibility of elections in Nigeria can not be regarded as expensive for 1.2b naira when it can be used over and again. 

It is well known that for every election in Nigeria and in addition to party loyalists, there are NGOs and international bodies monitoring the elections. These people usually work in concert with INEC. Their method is to go to a few places and watch the process in real-time after which each of them pass their judgment on the conduct over the whole area, most of which were not seen and even when seen, the people might behave themselves for the period of their presence. These bodies get generous subventions by donor bodies interested in their work. In my opinion it would be good for such generous subventions to be extended to a method such as I have outlined. It would not require anybody’s word of honour as is used at this present time. The various governments all say they wish to have free, fair and credible elections. Well, this is the time for them to prove it by also supporting this kind of project. This will test their genuine sincerity to make election malpractices a thing of the past in this country. There is room also for the private concerned individual, wealthy enough to chip in his own bit in the project to defray costs. 

Election rigging is so 20th century and there are very serious issues pertaining to nation building to bother about after elections are held. We can not continue to struggle with this part of democracy. The fact that people are willing to get into office regardless of the wishes of the electorate is bad enough. We should not make it a possibility at all. If the electorate continually vote in the wrong people, it is then the fault of the electorate and it then means more work need to be done on them to make enlightened choices and better value judgments. When in time word goes round that it is impossible to tamper with election results, it will certainly be an incentive for those in office, especially at the presidential level to sit up and make sure the electorate get value for the trust reposed in them by voting them in. Elections would then be real contests where no one could be definite that they would come through victorious. The issue of whether this activity should be made known to INEC officially is one that is open for debate. If they are aware, there are positive sides to it logistically but no one knows whether there are also downsides to it.

The process of building a democratic culture is multifaceted. The culture does not exist in Nigeria at this time. The people do not follow political issues. They mostly rely on hearsay and group wisdom. The politicians are more interested in winning elections than participating in an honourable process. Although it took the United States almost 200 years to achieve universal suffrage for good reason, we erroneously think universal suffrage must apply to all societies regardless of societal development stage. Since we have this already in place, let us make the best of the bad situation by improving the quality of the electorate. This is a very long and painstaking process. We can start though by removing these electoral disputes out of the mix of our problems by force since most of the contestants and their supporters do not have the quality of mind to volunteer to be honourable. In time, hopefully we can have a situation where the loser on election night can concede and congratulate the winner, having the confidence that he lost fair and square in a foolproof process.

These are all subject to review


Oseiwe Ibhagui
@OIbhagui 

29th April, 2014